UseCalcPro
Home
MathFinanceHealthConstructionAutoPetsGardenCraftsFood & BrewingToolsSportsMarineEducationTravel
Blog
  1. Home
  2. Construction

Heat Pump vs Gas Furnace Cost Calculator — 2026 Break-Even

See whether a heat pump or a gas furnace is actually cheaper to heat your home — weigh up-front install against yearly running cost and find your break-even year.

Heat Pump wins

$901 cheaper

Heat Pump

$17,809

Gas Furnace

$18,711

Break-even

Year 8

Heating Need

MMBTU
20 MMBTU
120 MMBTU
yr
5 yr
25 yr

Energy Rates

$/kWh
0.05 $/kWh0.4 $/kWh
$/therm
0.5 $/therm4 $/therm

Efficiency

COP
2 COP4.5 COP
%
80 %99 %

Up-front Cost (installed)

$
3000 $12000 $
$
2500 $9000 $

Heat Pump wins

Saves $901 over 15 years · breaks even in year 8

Best
Heat Pump

$17,809

Up-front$5,500
Per year$821
Gas Furnace

$18,711

Up-front$4,500
Per year$947

Total cost over 15 years

Heat Pump$17,809
Gas Furnace$18,711

Cumulative cost over time

Cumulative cost over time — crossover at year 8

What You'll Need

hOmeLabs 4,500 Sq Ft Energy Star Dehumidifier

$200-$2604.5
View on Amazon
Honeywell Home T9 Smart Thermostat with Sensor

Honeywell Home T9 Smart Thermostat with Sensor

$150-$2004.4
View on Amazon

Cooper & Hunter Mini Split AC 12000 BTU 22 SEER

$700-$9004.4
View on Amazon

hOmeLabs 4,500 Sq Ft Energy Star Dehumidifier

$200-$2604.5
View on Amazon
Honeywell Home T9 Smart Thermostat with Sensor

Honeywell Home T9 Smart Thermostat with Sensor

$150-$2004.4
View on Amazon

Cooper & Hunter Mini Split AC 12000 BTU 22 SEER

$700-$9004.4
View on Amazon

As an Amazon Associate, we earn from qualifying purchases.

Find an HVAC Technician Near You

Get free quotes from HVAC professionals near you

Angi
Angi4.7/5

Verified reviews & background checks

Get Free Quotes

Showing results for your area

Example Calculations

1Average rates, moderate climate

Inputs

Annual heating need60 MMBTU
Time horizon15 years
Electricity / gas rate$0.14/kWh · $1.50/therm
EfficiencyHeat pump COP 3.0 / Furnace 95% AFUE
Installed costHeat pump $5,500 / Furnace $4,500

Result

Cheaper optionHeat pump — saves $890 over 15 yrs
Heat pump 15-year total$17,815
Furnace 15-year total$18,705
Break-evenYear 8

Heat pump runs ~$821/year vs furnace ~$947/year. The $1,000 higher install is recovered by year 8, then the heat pump saves ~$127/year — a close race that tips on local rates.

2Cheap hydro electricity ($0.10/kWh)

Inputs

Annual heating need60 MMBTU
Time horizon15 years
Electricity / gas rate$0.10/kWh · $1.50/therm
EfficiencyHeat pump COP 3.0 / Furnace 95% AFUE
Installed costHeat pump $5,500 / Furnace $4,500

Result

Cheaper optionHeat pump — saves $4,415 over 15 yrs
Heat pump 15-year total$14,290
Furnace 15-year total$18,705
Break-evenYear 3

At $0.10/kWh the heat pump runs just ~$586/year. Break-even drops to ~3 years and it wins decisively — the Pacific Northwest scenario.

3Expensive power, cold climate ($0.22/kWh)

Inputs

Annual heating need60 MMBTU
Time horizon15 years
Electricity / gas rate$0.22/kWh · $1.50/therm
EfficiencyHeat pump COP 3.0 / Furnace 95% AFUE
Installed costHeat pump $5,500 / Furnace $4,500

Result

Cheaper optionGas furnace — saves $6,145 over 15 yrs
Heat pump 15-year total$24,850
Furnace 15-year total$18,705
Break-evenNone — furnace wins from day 1

At $0.22/kWh the heat pump runs ~$1,290/year — well above gas. Gas is cheaper both up front and yearly, so it dominates with no break-even.

Did You Know?

For a typical 60-MMBTU/year home in 2026, a heat pump (seasonal COP 3.0 at $0.14/kWh) costs about $820/year to run, versus about $947/year for a 95% AFUE gas furnace at $1.50/therm. The heat pump costs roughly $1,000 more to install but saves ~$127/year, breaking even around year 8 and pulling ahead afterward. Cheap electricity (under ~$0.11/kWh) makes the heat pump win outright; very cold climates or electricity above ~$0.20/kWh flip the answer to gas.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace?

It depends on your electricity and gas rates and your climate. A modern heat pump delivers 2.5–4 units of heat per unit of electricity (COP), so it is highly efficient — but electricity costs more per BTU than gas in many regions. For a typical 60-MMBTU/year home, a heat pump runs ~$820/year vs ~$947/year for a 95% AFUE gas furnace, a modest edge to the heat pump. Heat pumps cost ~$1,000 more to install, so they break even around year 8. Where electricity is cheap or winters are mild, the heat pump wins clearly; in very cold climates with pricey power, gas stays cheaper.

  • Heat pump running cost: ~$820/year (COP 3, $0.14/kWh)
  • Gas furnace running cost: ~$947/year (95% AFUE, $1.50/therm)
  • Heat pump installs ~$1,000 higher on average
  • Typical break-even: ~8 years
  • Cheap power or mild winters → heat pump wins outright
SystemInstalledRunning / year15-Year Total
Heat pump (COP 3)$5,500~$820~$17,815
Gas furnace (95% AFUE)$4,500~$947~$18,705
Heat pump @ $0.10/kWh$5,500~$586~$14,290
Q

How does climate change the heat pump vs furnace math?

Cold climates hurt heat pumps two ways: heating load rises, and the seasonal COP drops as outdoor temperatures fall (older units fall back to resistance heat below ~30°F). A heat pump rated COP 3.0 in a mild climate may average COP 2.0–2.2 in a cold one, raising running cost 35–50%. Gas furnaces are largely unaffected by outdoor temperature. That is why heat pumps dominate the South and Pacific Northwest (cheap hydro power, mild winters) while gas often wins in the cold Upper Midwest. Cold-climate (CCHP) heat pumps now hold COP 2+ down to 5°F and shift the line northward.

  • Cold weather raises load AND lowers COP
  • COP 3.0 mild → ~2.0–2.2 in cold climates
  • Gas furnace output is climate-independent
  • Heat pumps win South + Pacific NW
  • Cold-climate (CCHP) units hold COP 2+ at 5°F
Q

What is the break-even year between a heat pump and a furnace?

Break-even is when the cheaper-to-run system overtakes the cheaper-to-install one on cumulative cost. Divide the install gap by the yearly running-cost gap: with a ~$1,000 higher heat pump install and ~$127/year savings, that is about 8 years. Drop electricity to $0.10/kWh and the yearly savings jump to ~$361, pulling break-even to ~3 years. Raise electricity to $0.22/kWh in a cold climate and the heat pump never breaks even — gas is cheaper from day one. Because HVAC systems last 15–20 years, a break-even under ~10 years usually favors the heat pump.

  • Break-even = install gap ÷ yearly running gap
  • Typical: $1,000 ÷ $127 ≈ 8 years
  • Cheap power ($0.10/kWh): ~3 years
  • Expensive power + cold: never — gas wins
  • HVAC lasts 15–20 yrs, so sub-10-yr favors heat pump
Q

Does a heat pump replace both my furnace and AC?

Yes — a heat pump both heats and cools, so it replaces a furnace and a central air conditioner in one system. That changes the true cost comparison: if you would otherwise buy both a furnace ($4,500) and an AC ($4,500), the heat pump’s $5,500 install is actually cheaper up front, not more expensive. This calculator compares heating cost alone for clarity, but if you need cooling anyway, factor the avoided AC cost into the heat pump column. Many households also keep the gas furnace as backup in a dual-fuel setup that switches to gas below a set outdoor temperature.

  • Heat pump = heating + cooling in one unit
  • Replaces furnace AND central AC
  • If you need AC anyway, heat pump is cheaper up front
  • Dual-fuel: heat pump + gas backup for cold snaps
  • Federal/utility rebates can cut heat pump install $2,000+

Related Calculators

Gas vs Electric Water Heater Cost

The same break-even analysis for your water heater fuel choice.

Heat Pump Install Cost

Price a heat pump installation by size, type, and home before comparing running cost.

Furnace Install Cost

Price a gas furnace replacement by size, efficiency tier, and scope.

Central AC Install Cost

A heat pump also cools — price central AC to see the full dual-fuel picture.

Heat Pump vs Electric Furnace Cost Calculator — 2026 Break-Even

Compare heat pump vs electric resistance furnace heating costs: upfront cost, yearly running cost, and break-even year. A heat pump runs about 2.5x cheaper.

Gas vs Electric Dryer Cost Calculator — 2026 Break-Even

Compare gas vs electric clothes dryer costs in 2026: up-front price, yearly running cost, and break-even year. See which dryer is cheaper to run for you.

Related Resources

Gas vs Electric Water Heater Cost in 2026 (Full Comparison)

Read our guide

How to Build a Deck: Complete Materials & Cost Calculator Guide

Read our guide

Drywall Calculator Guide: Sheets, Mud, Tape & Cost for Any Room

Read our guide

Gas vs Electric Water Heater Cost

Heat Pump Install Cost

Furnace Install Cost

Furnace Replacement Cost

Central AC Install Cost

Explore Construction Calculators

Price HVAC, plumbing, roofing, renovation, and everything else that shows up on a home-improvement quote.

View All Construction Calculators

Last Updated: Jun 16, 2026

This calculator is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Results are estimates and should not be considered professional financial, medical, legal, or other advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making important decisions. UseCalcPro is not responsible for any actions taken based on calculator results.

UseCalcPro
FinanceHealthMath

© 2026 UseCalcPro