Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a scoring chance by assigning a probability (0 to 1) that a shot from a specific position will result in a goal. A penalty kick has ~0.76 xG while a shot from 30 yards out might be 0.03 xG. Total xG sums all shot probabilities.
- Penalty kick: ~0.76 xG (76% conversion rate)
- Shot inside 6-yard box: ~0.40 xG
- Shot from 12 yards (penalty spot): ~0.15-0.25 xG
- Shot from 20 yards: ~0.05-0.08 xG
- Shot from 30+ yards: ~0.02-0.04 xG
| Shot Location | Distance (yards) | Typical Angle | xG Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inside 6-yard box | 2-6 | 40-60° | 0.35-0.60 |
| Penalty spot | 12 | 25-35° | 0.10-0.25 |
| Edge of box | 18 | 15-25° | 0.05-0.12 |
| Outside box | 25-35 | 10-20° | 0.02-0.06 |
